🚨 Randolph, IN: Tornado Warning issued August 1 at 8:30PM EDT until August 1 at 9:15PM EDT by NWS Indianapolis IN 🚨 Darke, OH: Tornado Warning issued August 1 at 8:28PM EDT until August 1 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH 🚨 Graham, AZ; Greenlee, AZ: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 1 at 5:28PM MST until August 1 at 6:15PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ 🚨 Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and Buttonwood Sound; Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef; Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued August 1 at 8:27PM EDT by NWS Key West FL 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Boone, KY; Kenton, KY: Tornado Warning issued August 1 at 8:26PM EDT until August 1 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH 🚨 Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM; Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued August 1 at 8:26PM EDT until August 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 🚨 Montgomery, OH; Warren, OH: Tornado Warning issued August 1 at 8:25PM EDT until August 1 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH 🚨 Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued August 1 at 7:25PM CDT until August 2 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX 🚨 Lincoln, NM: Flood Advisory issued August 1 at 6:24PM MDT until August 1 at 9:30PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
The organization of Genevieve hasn’t changed much during the past 6
h. GOES-18 daytime visible imagery indicates that the low-level
center is exposed to the west of the main convective area. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is
2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range
from about 35-40 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt for
this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is
unchanged from 6 h ago. This general motion will continue through
the end of the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of
the cyclone. By Monday, a gradual turn to the northwest and
north-northwest is expected as the ridge weakens north of the
cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that will be located to the
north-northwest of Genevieve. Very little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast, which lies close to the latest Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). The
track guidance remains tightly clustered, so there is high
confidence in the track forecast.
Genevieve is starting to enter cooler sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) now, with SSTs between 24-25C. The cyclone will reach SSTs
lower than 24C in about 12h. Genevieve is currently moving within
an environment of weak vertical wind shear dry, stable air.
Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate
levels (15-20 kt) by 24 h while the environment remains dry and
stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening,
and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become post
tropical by 36 h. Thereafter, the remnant low should gradually spin
down with dissipation occurring by 96 h, as depicted by the global
models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.1N 154.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 766 NM EAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF A LONG-LASTING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE THAT PERSISTED FOR NEARLY 36 HOURS, TYPHOON (TY) 12W NOW
EXHIBITS A LARGE, 30 NM WIDE EYE. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO
-80 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCED VIA THE
BD CURVE, THE CDO PRESENTS AS A SOLID, IMPRESSIVE RING OF WHITE
SHADES WITH SOME EMBEDDED CMG SHADES WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE EYE.
A 011530Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE LARGE, PRIMARY
EYEWALL AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW, SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, WHICH IS ENABLING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
MODERATE OHC, CREATING CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
TYPHOON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE SINCE ERC COMPLETION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 125 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASING OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS RANGING
FROM 115 KTS TO 130 KTS AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES OF T6.5
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RCTP.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 011530Z
CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 011800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 115 KTS AT 011800Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 124 KTS AT 011603Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 118 KTS AT 011800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD AT 13
KTS, DRIVEN BY AN AMPLIFYING STR TO ITS NORTHEAST. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE WILL STEER THE SYSTEM ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A SEPARATE LARGE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, MAINTAINING THE
WESTWARD MOTION AND FORCING THE SYSTEM TO PASS VERY NEAR IWO TO. AS
TY 12W APPROACHES OKINAWA, THE FORWARD SPEED WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO 10 KTS. THIS SLOWING WILL BE INDUCED BY A LARGE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, WHICH WILL ERODE STR AND RESULT
INTO A WEAKER STEERING GRADIENT. THE TYPHOON HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER THE COMPLETION OF AN ERC.
HOWEVER, THE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPPORTING SUCH AN INTENSE STORM. WHILE THE SST
WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AT 29-31 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH TAU 120, THE
OHC WILL DROP TO BELOW 100 KJ PER CM2. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE ADDITIONAL ERC
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE ERC
WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD, WHICH IS
FACTORED INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAS…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: WSW (250°), 7.8 kt | Gust: 7.8 kt
Pressure: 29.91 falling | Air Temp: 86.7 °F
Water Temp: 87.3 °F | Dew Point: 80.6 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 1.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
